Gold’s had a bit of a breather this week — or depending on your position, a bit of a gut-punch. After an impressive multi-week climb, we’re now looking at three consecutive days of losses. This morning saw spot gold break below $3,350, dipping as low as $3,342 after opening around $3,370.
And honestly?
Not much really happened to trigger it.
No breaking news. No geopolitical drama (for once).
Just… quiet markets. Which means all eyes shift to technicals.
The Technical Guys Are Loving This
With nothing juicy to trade off in the headlines, the technical analysts have taken center stage. And right now, the bears are enjoying themselves. Gold is on track to close out the week roughly 2.5% lower — snapping what had been a strong two-week winning streak.
But — and it’s a big but — let’s not lose the forest for the trees.
The Bigger Picture: Gold’s Still King in 2025
Despite this short-term pullback, gold is still laughing at almost every other major asset class this year. Year-to-date, bullion is up an impressive 28% — handily outperforming both the S&P 500 (+1.9%) and Bitcoin (+12%).
Zoom out and gold remains very much in a dominant long-term uptrend.
What’s Behind the Pullback?
The Fed threw a little water on the fire earlier this week by holding rates at 4.5% and signaling stickier inflation expectations — in part thanks to ongoing tariff uncertainty out of the Trump camp. The result? A slightly stronger dollar and a bit of downward pressure on gold.
Higher rates always take a little shine off non-yielding assets like gold. When interest rates are high, there’s more incentive for funds to flow into fixed income where you actually get paid to sit still — instead of hoping gold continues to rise.
Key Levels to Watch
Technically, gold is still sitting comfortably above its major simple moving averages:
- 50-day SMA: $3,317
- 100-day SMA: $3,139
- 200-day SMA: $2,901
In other words: the long-term trend remains fully intact.
The real question is whether bulls can clear the double-top resistance hovering around $3,450. If that breaks, we could see a retest of the $3,500 all-time highs. Until then, the market may stay choppy while traders jockey for positioning.
Eyes on Next Week
Next week could deliver the kind of volatility that breaks us out of this technical grind. Here’s what’s on deck:
- Tuesday & Wednesday – Fed Chair Powell speaks (and traders hang on every word)
- Thursday – U.S. GDP data drops
- Friday – The Fed’s preferred inflation measure: PCE data
Any surprise from Powell or the inflation numbers could light the fire again — in either direction.
My Take:
Short-term? Choppy.
Medium-term? Still bullish until proven otherwise.
Long-term? The big shiny rock is still doing exactly what it’s supposed to do — remind us why it’s called a store of value.